Wild-Card Weekend Preview: Six Games, One Wild Ride “What to watch, who’s hurt, and the picks everyone’s talking about”
The 2025 NFL wild card schedule comes with familiar blockbustering, shocking storylines, and a smattering of QB battles that will upset the entire postseason in short order. From the Rams’ trip to watch the Panthers roll in First Place to the Bears-Packers series finale rematch, to the Sunday Night tilt between the Bills and Jaguars, everyone from local reporters to advance CNBC teams to Vegas Oddsmakers are hard-pressed to sort the facts from the hype in order to make their picks. Rather than polling the pundits, here’s the Big Take.
Weekend snapshot
“The wild card weekend gets underway on Saturday, followed by some games on Monday, featuring highlights such as Rams/Panthers (Sat. afternoon), Packers/Bears (Sat. night), Bills/Jaguars (Sun.), 49ers/Eagles (Sun.), Chargers/Patriots (Sun.),” Johnson said, “and Texans/Steelers (Mon.). These lines, over/under, and other FPI team analysis are used in attempting to distinguish true line matchups from potential upsets.”
Rams (5) at Panthers (4) — Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
Los Angeles comes into this contest as a dominating road favorite (LAR -10.5) after finishing the season strongly. The Rams are expected to return wide receiver Davante Adams from a hamstring injury, which will impact red zone scoring. The Panthers will play with new rookie QB Bryce Young in his first playoff experience. They will need their running game to return to life if they plan to control this game’s tempo. The FPI gives this game a strong Rams advantage with almost everyone’s pick favoring Los Angeles except for home-field advantage.
Why it matters: TE Chase Claypool is listed as doubtful; without him, the Steelers may struggle in the run game; the Titans run-stop unit is slightly better than the Rams run-block unit (Titans run-stop vs. Rams run-block).
Packers (7) at Bears (2) — Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
“Rematch” between two familiar foes. Green Bay has recent postseason exposure, and Chicago is trying to overcome poor start woes from the past two years. The line was close (GB -1.5), although the FPI from ESPN indicates that this is the most competitive game. Turnovers and third-down conversions will likely make the difference in this possession battle. Forecasters’ selections are split.
Bills (5) at Jaguars (4) – Sunday
“This looks like what we can expect—a real quarterback duel: Josh Allen vs. Trevor Lawrence.” This type of game is expected in what was close to an even split of the bettors in the game, according to the Vegas lines. Among the factors that the models focus on—or anybody interested in the game’s likely outcome—is the efficiency of the Bills’ running game, the capacity of the Jaguars’ D to prevent explosive scores, as well as the performance of both offensive lines when pressed.
49ers (X) at Eagles (X) – Sunday
Matchups like the trip of the San Francisco team to Philadelphia are some of the most exciting over the weekend.
Injury updates: 49ers left tackle Trent Williams was listed as questionable due to a hamstring. But he is confident he’ll be able to suit up, which would impact the pass protection scheme, as the Eagles’ defensive line is formidable. Picks for this match are mixed, some preferring the home advantage, others suggesting the experience in postseason games.
Chargers vs. Patriots – Sunday
An interstate game boasting compelling offensive or defensive matchups. Despite the lines, the Patriots’ well-rounded unit and home advantage make this one more intriguing than the numbers; various member picks placed the average prediction at the Patriots being favored by a narrow margin of victory. Turnovers and the Chargers’ offensive skills in an away game are key areas to watch in this contest.
Texans at Steelers – Monday Night Football.
In Monday’s contest, Houston’s aggressive D line will face Pittsburgh’s experienced offensive unit. The Houston pass rush is a key component of a postseason lineup, and some experts note that this could hurt Pittsburgh’s chances to maintain sustained progress on extended possessions unless Pittsburgh receives quick blocking and TV-ready throws from Aaron Rodgers. Experts provided a slight line favoring the Houston Texans.
“Injuries & officiating – the details that swing bets & game plans,” <mark>Del Rio} was tweeted
The final reports of injuries and questionables changed late in the week for several teams; CBS was among the sources of updated injury reports for the weekend, andReuters gave status updates such as Trent Williams’ questionability for the 49ers. Refereeing styles, including some of the least-penalizing crews of this season, were mentioned as X-factors for a physical team’s degree of toughness without sacrificing free yards. If you’re betting or making lineups for fantasy football, consider these X-factors for next weekend’s action.
What the models and experts say (consensus picks)
ESPN, CBS, Pro Football Talk, and other sources offer a fair share of common views as well as some differences in opinions on this topic:
• ESPN’s internal committee and FPI rate Rams heavily, the game as a split decision for Packers/Bears, with several tossup games (Bills/Jaguars especially
• The expert card from CBS Sports features similar favorites but also provides several “best bet” selections and against the spread analysis pointing out value lines.
• Pro Football Talk and Yahoo offer different score projections and contrary picks of upsets (notably Panthers and Jaguars in certain places).
Quick picks (synthesized)
“These are short, balanced statements that draw on analytics and expert panels:”
• “Rams vs. Panthers, Falcons vs. Bears, Cardinals at Eagles”
• Bears over Packers (tightly contested; many pundits are divided—should be close).
• Jaguars at Bills (computer pick: a close contest with no betting handle
• Eagles vs. 49ers (such games are subject to LT status).
• Patriots over Chargers. A team with a home-field advantage. They
• Texans over Steelers (matchups for the Texans defense).
Final Note—How to Use this Guide
Everything will hang in the balance concerning health, third-down and red zone conversions, and the ability to change the course of the game through individual play. Use the injury reports to guide you. You could use officiating patterns on these plays. Think ahead to the styles involved in the contests you know. This is the mix the media has typically incorporated into predictions. Want to use this information similarly to print out some cheat sheets?